American Cement Association Market Intelligence leaders presented their spring forecast update at the IEEE-IAS/ACA Cement Conference, holding firm to a prior outlook that 2026 will be a fourth consecutive year of cement consumption declines – from 107.1 million metric tons in 2023 to 97.5 million mt projected for this year.
Present factors softening U.S. cement consumption, however, do not preclude a broader Market Intelligence baseline view that the U.S. economy will not enter a recession this year.
Senior Director, Economic Policy and Analytics Brian Schmidt told attendees at the Ft. Lauderdale gathering that he and colleagues see no obvious driver for cement consumption growth in 2026. That sentiment reflects Iran conflict-spawned economic uncertainty, the potential for inflation and interest rates remaining higher for a longer period than previously anticipated, and weak growth in public construction markets. Like many construction materials stakeholders, the ACA Market Intelligence team is closely tracking action in Washington, D.C. toward the sunset of highway, bridge and environmental project funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), expiring Sept. 30.
ACA Director of Economic Modeling Trevor Storck reviewed the limited impact that higher funding IIJA brought to federal road and bridge programs, based on levels predating the law and since its 2021 passage. “IIJA has not produced strong, consistent gains in the sector,” he concluded, but noted how the law had supported moderate to strong year-over-year funding increases for water-related construction, including wastewater conveyance.
In the residential market, Stork noted prospects for moderate improvement in single-family starts. Weakness continues across nine Census Bureau regions, however, when ACA Market Intelligence compares present housing start levels to those of the 2005 peak. Certain regions show housing work at less than half of the levels 20 years ago.
In nonresidential building, the Market Intelligence team finds data center projects not only strong but eclipsing for the first time the 50% mark of the Census Bureau-defined Office Building construction category. Market leaders in data center development remain Texas and Virginia, with 140 and 136 projects, respectively, in the pipeline – more than double the next two strongholds of Georgia (56) and Ohio (51).
The presentation took place on IEEE-IAS/ACA Cement Conference day three, two days after Market Intelligence released the spring forecast update to ACA members and customers.
