Construction-materials Economist Ed Sullivan, author of The Sullivan Report, said in his just-released Summer Outlook 2026 that the U.S. cement market has now declined three consecutive years, shedding more than 10 million metric tons since 2022.
Lower volumes have pulled clinker utilization down, reduced import reliance and moderated cement and concrete pricing. The causes are inflation’s pass-through to interest rates, erosion in the buying power of public spending programs and, more recently, slowing job creation.
The Iran war is now six months old and no clear exit strategy seems apparent. The rise in oil prices has been cushioned by the draw down in strategic oil reserves. Those reserves have limits. If the stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz persists, oil prices may run even higher, aggravating inflation and interest rates further — all to the detriment of private construction.
High interest rates and a slowing economy could also create credit concerns regarding a massive amount for refinancing debt among office, manufacturing, retail and hospitality — potentially adding to the private sector woes.
Finally, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act expires on Sept. 30. The continuing resolution scheduled for December will likely lead to another, longer term extension — to the detriment of some public sector funding.
While data center construction is expected to remain robust, the sector simply isn’t large enough to offset the headwinds facing cement consumption this year or next. That suggests perhaps another year and a half of decline in cement consumption volume, sagging utilization rates and soft pricing conditions.
