Sullivan: March Data Weakens; Outlook Hinges on One Factor

Recent economic data reflected a modest economic weakening of conditions in the context of elevated inflation, according to Construction Materials Economist Ed Sullivan. Consumer spending increased – but at a rate less than expected. As a result, inventories rose – sending a signal that future production may come in light. GDP for the fourth quarter was revised down from 0.7%…

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Alternative Mid-Year Economic Forecast Scenarios

By Ed Sullivan All forecasts contain risk that can originate from the data used, the process of calculations, the assumptions, or a combination of each element. Indeed, an infinite number of alternative scenarios to the Baseline Scenario exists, and each materializes with even small changes in assumptions.

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Stagflation is Here: A Quick Review of What the Latest Economic Data Means

By Ed Sullivan The latest economic data, on its surface, presents a stronger-than-expected economic picture. Headline GDP growth of 3% exceeded most expectations even in the context of slower consumer spending. Headline consumer confidence edged up, although the present situation index eased a bit. Inflation measured by the personal consumer expenditures came in at 2.8% year-over-year (Y-O-Y), a bit stronger…

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